by Bill McBride on 6/22/2013 11:23:00 AM
Saturday, June 22, 2013
There are two key housing reports to be released this week: New Home sales for May and Case-Shiller house prices for April. Other key reports are the third estimate of Q1 GDP on Wednesday, and the May Personal Income and Outlays report on Thursday.
For manufacturing, the Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City regional manufacturing surveys for June will be released this week.
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May. This is a composite index of other data.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for June. The consensus is a reading of 0, up from minus 10.5 in May (below zero is expansion).
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 3.3% increase in durable goods orders.
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for April 2013. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index that deserves more attention. The consensus is for a 1.2% increase.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for April. Although this is the April report, it is really a 3 month average of February, March and April.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through March 2012 (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 10.9% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for December. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 12.1% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 1.7% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for May from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the April sales rate.
The consensus is for an increase in sales to 460 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in May from 454 thousand in April.
10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for June. The consensus is for the index to decrease to 75.0 from 76.2.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June. The consensus is for a reading of 2 for this survey, up from minus 2 in May (Below zero is contraction).
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: Q1 GDP (third estimate). This is the third estimate of Q1 GDP from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.4% annualized in Q1, unrevised from the 2nd estimate.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an decrease to 345 thousand from 354 thousand last week.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for May. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income in April, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for May. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for June. This is the last of the regional manufacturing surveys for June. The consensus is for a reading of 4 for this survey, up from 2 in May (Above zero is expansion).
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June. The consensus is for a decrease to 55.0, down from 58.7 in May.
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for June). The consensus is for a reading of 83.0.