Monday, May 13, 2013

When will payroll employment exceed the pre-recession peak?

by Bill McBride on 5/13/2013 11:46:00 AM

The WSJ has an overview of several economic forecasts: Economic Road Clearing, but the Going Is Slow

The U.S. still employs more than 2.5 million fewer people than when the recession began. At 180,000 jobs a month, it will take until the middle of 2014 to close that gap. Adjust for population growth, and it will take nine more years to return to the prerecession level of employment at the current rate of growth, according to the Brookings Institution.
Below is an update of the graph showing job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, with a projection assuming the current rate of payroll growth will continue.

This suggests that employment will exceed the pre-recession peak around July 2014 (Private employment will reach a new high around March of 2014).

Of course, as the article notes, this doesn't include adjusting for population growth - but this will still be a major milestone.

Percent Job Losses During RecessionsClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, compared to previous post WWII recessions. The dotted line is a projection based on recent payroll increases.

It looks like employment will reach a new high in mid-2014, about 78 months after the previous high.

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