Saturday, May 11, 2013

Schedule for Week of May 12th

by Bill McBride on 5/11/2013 10:36:00 AM

A key report this week will be April retail sales to be released on Monday.  Also there are two key housing reports to be released: the May homebuilder confidence survey on Wednesday, and April housing starts on Thursday.

For manufacturing, the April Industrial Production survey will be released on Wednesday.  Also for manufacturing, the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed May surveys will be released this week.

For prices, PPI and CPI for April will be released.

Over in Europe, Eurozone GDP will be released on Wednesday (expected to show further contraction), the BOE Inflation Report also on Wednesday, and Japan GDP will be released Thursday (expected to show decent growth in Q1).

----- Monday, May 13th -----

Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for April will be released.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales are up 26.2% from the bottom, and now 11.2% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

The consensus is for retail sales to decline 0.3% in April, and to decline 0.1% ex-autos.

10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for March.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.

----- Tuesday, May 14th -----

7:30 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April. The consensus is for an increase to 90.5 from 89.5 in March.

11:00 AM: The Q1 2013 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit will be released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

----- Wednesday, May 15th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for April. The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).

8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 3.75, up from 3.05 in April (above zero is expansion).

Industrial Production9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for April.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in Industrial Production in March, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 78.3%.

10:00 AM ET: The May NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 43, up from 42 in April.   This index has decreased recently with some builders complaining about higher costs and lack of buildable land.  Any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Thursday, May 16th -----

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts 8:30 AM: Housing Starts for April.

Total housing starts were at 1.036 million (SAAR) in March, 7.0 percent above the revised February estimate of 968 thousand. Single family starts declined slightly to 619,000 in March.

The consensus is for total housing starts to decrease to 969 thousand (SAAR) in April mostly because of a decline in multi-family starts.

8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for April. The consensus is for a 0.3% decrease in CPI in April (due to lower gasoline prices) and for core CPI to increase 0.2%.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 330 thousand from 323 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 2.2, up from 1.3 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

12:30 PM: Speech by Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin, Prospects for a Stronger Recovery, At the Society of Government Economists and National Economists Club, Washington, D.C

----- Friday, May 17th -----

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for May). The consensus is for a reading of 78.0, up from 76.4.

10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for April 2013

----- Saturday, May 18th -----

12:30 PM: Speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Economic Prospects for the Long Run, At the Bard College Commencement, Great Barrington, Massachusetts