Sunday, May 12, 2013

EIA: Gasoline Prices expected to average $3.53 per gallon this summer

by Bill McBride on 5/12/2013 11:03:00 AM

Happy Mother's Day! (off topic: Sasha's Snoxx Socks venture is almost fully funded - you can preorder Snoxx here, or see her Snoxx website.)

From the EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook

Falling crude oil prices contributed to a decline in the U.S. regular gasoline retail price from a year-to-date high of $3.78 per gallon on February 25 to $3.52 per gallon on April 29. EIA expects the regular gasoline price will average $3.53 per gallon over the summer (April through September), down $0.10 per gallon from last month's STEO. The annual average regular gasoline retail price is projected to decline from $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to $3.50 per gallon in 2013 and to $3.39 per gallon in 2014. Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, and the current values of futures and options contracts suggest that prices could differ significantly from the projected levels.
Last summer, gasoline prices averaged $3.76 per gallon during the April through September period - so this is a little good news for drivers.

According to Gasbuddy.com (see graph at bottom), gasoline prices are up to a national average of $3.58 per gallon. One year ago, prices were at $3.81 per gallon, and for the same week two years ago prices were just over $4.00 per gallon.

According to Bloomberg, WTI oil is at $96.04 per barrel, and Brent is at $103.91 per barrel. Using the calculator from Professor Hamilton, and the current price of Brent crude oil, the national average should be around $3.44 per gallon. That is about 14 cents below the current level according to Gasbuddy.com, so prices might fall a little.

Note: If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.



Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

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