Tuesday, May 07, 2013

CoreLogic: House Prices up 10.5% Year-over-year in March

by Bill McBride on 5/07/2013 09:01:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for March. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for February. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Home Price Index Rises by 10.5 Percent Year Over Year in March

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 10.5 percent on a year-over-year basis in March 2013 compared to March 2012. This change represents the biggest year-over-year increase since March 2006 and the 13th consecutive monthly increase in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 1.9 percent in March 2013 compared to February 2013.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased on a year-over-year basis by 10.7 percent in March 2013 compared to March 2012. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 2.4 percent in March 2013 compared to February 2013. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that April 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 9.6 percent on a year-over-year basis from April 2012 and rise by 1.3 percent on a month-over-month basis from March 2013. Excluding distressed sales, April 2013 home prices are poised to rise 12 percent year over year from April 2012 and by 2.7 percent month over month from March 2013.
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“For the first time since March 2006, both the overall index and the index that excludes distressed sales are above 10 percent year over year,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The pace of appreciation has been accelerating throughout 2012 and so far in 2013 leading into the home buying season.”
CoreLogic House Price Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 1.9% in March, and is up 10.5% over the last year.

The index is off 25.1% from the peak - and is up 11.9% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012.

CoreLogic YoY House Price IndexThe second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for thirteen consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed early in 2012 on a national basis (the bump in 2010 was related to the tax credit).

This is the largest year-over-year increase since 2006.

This was another very strong month-to-month increase.  I expect more inventory to come on the market and slow the price increases.

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