Thursday, April 11, 2013

Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller House Price index to increase 8.9% Year-over-year for February

by Bill McBride on 4/11/2013 01:53:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for February will be released Tuesday, April 30th. Zillow has started forecasting the Case-Shiller a month early - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

Zillow Zillow Anticipates Strengthening Appreciation in February Case-Shiller Index

[W]e predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (February 2013) will show that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) increased 8.9 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) increased 8.0 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from January to February will be 0.7 percent for the 20-City Composite and 0.6 percent for the 10-City Composite Home Price Indices (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below. Officially, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for February will not be released until Tuesday, April 30.
...
To forecast the Case-Shiller indices we use past data from Case-Shiller, as well as the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is available more than a month in advance of Case-Shiller numbers, paired with foreclosure resale numbers, which we also have available more than a month prior to Case-Shiller numbers. ...

The ZHVI does not include foreclosure resales and shows home values for February 2013 up 5.8 percent from year-ago levels. We expect home value appreciation to moderate in 2013, rising only 3.2 percent from February 2013 to February 2014. Further details on our forecast can be found here ...
Zillow also just released their city by city forecasts for the next year: Zillow Home Value Forecast for February 2014

The following table shows the Zillow forecast for February.

Zillow February Forecast for Case-Shiller Index
 Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
NSASANSASA
Case Shiller
(year ago)
Feb 2012146.64149.46134.09136.98
Case-Shiller
(last month)
Jan 2013158.72160.73146.14147.86
Zillow ForecastYoY8.0%8.0%8.9%8.9%
MoM-0.2%0.6%-0.1%0.7%
Zillow Forecasts1 158.4161.4146.0149.0
Current Post Bubble Low 146.46149.46134.07136.77
Date of Post Bubble Low Mar-12Feb-12Mar-12Jan-12
Above Post Bubble Low 8.1%8.0%8.9%9.0%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts

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