by Bill McBride on 4/03/2013 08:58:00 AM
Wednesday, April 03, 2013
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for February. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for January. Case-Shiller is currently the most followed house price index, however CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Home Price Index Rises by 10.2 Percent Year Over Year in February: The Biggest Increase in Nearly Seven Years
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 10.2 percent on a year-over-year basis by in February 2013 compared to February 2012. This change represents the biggest year-over-year increase since March 2006 and the 12th consecutive monthly increase in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 0.5 percent in February 2013 compared to January 2013.Click on graph for larger image.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased on a year-over-year basis by 10.1 percent in February 2013 compared to February 2012. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 1.5 percent in February 2013 compared to January 2013. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that March 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are also expected to rise by 10.2 percent on a year-over-year basis from March 2012 and rise by 1.2 percent on a month-over-month basis from February 2013.
“The rebound in prices is heavily driven by western states. Eight of the top ten highest appreciating large markets are in California, with Phoenix and Las Vegas rounding out the list,” said Dr. Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.
This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.
The index was up 0.5% in February, and is up 10.2% over the last year.
The index is off 26.3% from the peak - and is up 10.2% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012.
The second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for twelve consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed early in 2012 on a national basis (the bump in 2010 was related to the tax credit).
This is the largest year-over-year increase since 2006.
Since this index is not seasonally adjusted, it was expected to be flat or decline on a month-to-month basis in February - instead the index increased, and, considering seasonal factors, this month-to-month increase was very strong.