Tuesday, March 05, 2013

Wednesday: ADP Employment, Beige Book

by Bill McBride on 3/05/2013 07:11:00 PM

Back in October, ADP revised their methodology for estimating changes in private employment. Here is a table of the four releases since the methodology was changed.

Comparison of BLS Private Employment and ADP (000s)
 ADP InitialRevisedBLS Initial (Private Only)BLS Revised (Private)
Oct-12158159184217
Nov-12118173147256
Dec-12215185168202
Jan-13192-166-


In general it appears the new methodology is better, but it is still too early for a statistical analysis. With this small sample, it appears that the initial BLS report will be +/- 20% of the ADP number or so.

Wednesday economic releases:
• At 10:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for February. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 173,000 payroll jobs added in February.

• At 10:00 AM, the Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for January. The consensus is for a 2.2% decrease in orders.

• At 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve Beige Book will be released. This is an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. Analysts will look for signs of an impact from the recent tax increases.

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