Wednesday, March 20, 2013

FOMC Projections and Press Conference

by Bill McBride on 3/20/2013 02:19:00 PM

Bernanke press conference here or watch below.



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On the projections, GDP was revised down slightly, the unemployment rate was revised down, and inflation was revised down slightly.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in Real GDP1201320142015
Mar 2013 Meeting Projections2.3 to 2.82.9 to 3.42.9 to 3.7
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections2.3 to 3.03.0 to 3.53.0 to 3.7
1 Projections of change in real GDP and in inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 7.7% in February. 

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate2201320142015
Mar 2013 Meeting Projections7.3 to 7.5 6.7 to 7.06.0 to 6.5
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections7.4 to 7.7 6.8 to 7.36.0 to 6.6
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The FOMC believes inflation will stay below target.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE Inflation1201320142015
Mar 2013 Meeting Projections1.3 to 1.71.5 to 2.01.7 to 2.0
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections1.3 to 2.01.5 to 2.01.7 to 2.0

Here is core inflation:

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core Inflation1201320142015
Mar 2013 Meeting Projections1.5 to 1.61.7 to 2.01.8 to 2.0
Dec 2012 Meeting Projections1.6 to 1.91.6 to 2.01.8 to 2.1