Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Pending Home Sales index increased in January

by Bill McBride on 2/27/2013 10:14:00 AM

From the NAR: January Pending Home Sales Up in All Regions

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 4.5 percent to 105.9 in January from a downwardly revised 101.3 in December and is 9.5 percent above January 2012 when it was 96.7. The data reflect contracts but not closings.

The January index is the highest reading since April 2010 when it hit 110.9, just before the deadline for the home buyer tax credit. Aside from spikes induced by the tax credits, the last time there was a higher reading was in February 2007 when it reached 107.9.

The PHSI in the Northeast rose 8.2 percent to 84.8 in January and is 10.5 percent higher than January 2012. In the Midwest the index increased 4.5 percent to 105.0 in January and is 17.7 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South rose 5.9 percent to an index of 119.3 in January and are 11.3 percent higher January 2012. In the West the index edged up 0.1 percent in January to 102.1 but is 1.5 percent below a year ago.
emphasis added
Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in February and March.

Also the NAR economist lowered his forecast for sales in 2013 to 5.0 million.  With limited inventory at the low end, and fewer foreclosures, we might see flat or even declining existing home sales this year. The key for sales is that the number of conventional sales is increasing while foreclosure and short sales decline.

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