Thursday, February 21, 2013

MBA: "Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Finished 2012 Down Sharply"

by Bill McBride on 2/21/2013 11:44:00 AM

Note: I'll post more on existing home sales soon, and on mortgage delinquencies later today.

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates Finished 2012 Down Sharply

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 7.09 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2012, the lowest level since 2008, a decrease of 31 basis points from the previous quarter, and down 49 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey, released today at MBA’s National Servicing Conference and Expo in Dallas, Texas.

While delinquency rates typically increase between the third and fourth quarters of the year, even the non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate dropped 13 basis points to 7.51 percent this quarter from 7.64 percent last quarter.

The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the fourth quarter was 0.70 percent, the lowest level since the second quarter of 2007, down 20 basis points from last quarter and down 29 basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was 3.74 percent, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2008, down 33 basis points from the third quarter and 64 basis points lower than one year ago.

The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 6.78 percent, a decrease of 25 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 95 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2011.

“We are seeing large improvements in mortgage performance nationally and in almost every state. The 30 day delinquency rate decreased 21 basis points to its lowest level since mid-2007. With fewer new delinquencies, the foreclosure start rate and foreclosure inventory rates continue to fall and are at their lowest levels since 2007 and 2008 respectively,” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research.
MBA Delinquency by PeriodClick on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.

Loans 30 days delinquent decreased to 3.04% from 3.25% in Q3. This is just below 2007 levels and around the long term average.

Delinquent loans in the 60 day bucket decreased to 1.16% in Q4, from 1.19% in Q3.

The 90 day bucket decreased to 2.89% from 2.96%. This is still way above normal (around 0.8% would be normal according to the MBA).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased to 3.74% from 4.07% and is now at the lowest level since 2008.

I'll have more on the delinquency survey later.

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