Friday, February 01, 2013

ISM Manufacturing index increases in January to 53.1, Consumer Sentiment improves

by Bill McBride on 2/01/2013 10:00:00 AM

Note: I'll have much more on the employment report soon.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in January. PMI was at 53.1% in January, up from 50.2% in December. The employment index was at 54.0%, up from 51.9%, and the new orders index was at 53.3%, up from 49.7% in December.

From the Institute for Supply Management: January 2013 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January for the second consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 44th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
ISM PMIClick on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The PMI™ registered 53.1 percent, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from December's seasonally adjusted reading of 50.2 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for the second consecutive month. The New Orders Index registered 53.3 percent, an increase of 3.6 percent over December's seasonally adjusted reading of 49.7 percent, indicating growth in new orders. Manufacturing is starting out the year on a positive note, with all five of the PMI™'s component indexes — new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories — registering above 50 percent in January."
This was above expectations of 50.7% and suggests manufacturing expanded in January.

Final consumer sentiment for January:

Consumer Sentiment The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for January increased to 73.8 from the preliminary reading of 71.3, and from the December reading of 72.9.

This was above the consensus forecast of 71.5. There are a number of factors that can impact sentiment including unemployment, gasoline prices and other concerns - and, for January, the payroll tax increase and more. The slight improvement might be related to relief that politics didn't damage the economy.

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