Friday, January 25, 2013

Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller House Price index to increase 5.3% Year-over-year for November

by Bill McBride on 1/25/2013 09:20:00 PM

Zillow Forecast: November Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 5.3% Increase from One Year Ago

On [Tuesday] January 29th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for November will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will be up by 5.3 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will be up 4.5 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from October to November will be 0.3 percent for both the 20-City Composite and the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA).

To forecast the Case-Shiller indices we use past data from Case-Shiller, as well as the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is available a month in advance of Case-Shiller numbers, paired with foreclosure re-sale numbers, which we also have available a month prior to Case-Shiller numbers. Together, these data points enable us to reliably forecast the Case-Shiller 10-City and 20-City Composite indices. The ZHVI does not include foreclosure re-sales and closed 2012 (December) with home values up 5.9% from year-ago levels. We expect home value appreciation to moderate in 2013, rising only 3.3 percent from December 2012 to December 2013. Further details on our forecast can be found here.

Zillow’s December 2012 data can be found here.
Zillow's forecasts for Case-Shiller have been pretty close.  Right now it looks like Case-Shiller will be over 6% in 2012 (through the December / Q4 reports to be released in February).

Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
NSASANSASA
Case Shiller
(year ago)
Nov 2011151.41150.49138.19137.37
Case-Shiller
(last month)
Oct 2012158.77156.61146.08144.12
Zillow Nov ForecastYoY4.5%4.5%5.3%5.3%
MoM-0.3%0.3%-0.4%0.4%
Zillow Forecasts1158.3157.2145.5144.7
Current Post Bubble Low146.46149.40134.07136.70
Date of Post Bubble LowMar-12Jan-12Mar-12Jan-12
Above Post Bubble Low8.1%5.2%8.5%5.8%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts

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