by Bill McBride on 1/19/2013 08:02:00 AM
Saturday, January 19, 2013
Note: I'll post a summary for last week soon.
There are two key December housing reports that will be released this week, Existing home sales on Tuesday, and New Home sales on Friday.
For manufacturing, the January Richmond Fed and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released this week.
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Martin Luther King, Jr. Day holiday.
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is a composite index of other data.
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The consensus is for sales of 5.10 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in November 2012 were 5.04 million SAAR.
Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales at 4.97 million SAAR.
A key will be inventory and months-of-supply.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. The consensus is for a a reading of 5 for this survey, unchanged from December (Above zero is expansion).
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for November 2012. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index that deserves more attention. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in house prices.
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for December (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 360 thousand from 335 thousand last week.
9:00 AM: The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index Flash. This release might provide hints about the ISM PMI for January. This consensus is for a decrease to 54.0 from 54.2 in December.
10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for December. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in this index.
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for January. The consensus is for a reading of 2, up from -2 in December (below zero is contraction).
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for December from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the November sales rate.
The consensus is for an increase in sales to 388 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in December from 377 thousand in November.