Thursday, January 31, 2013

Friday: Jobs, ISM Mfg, Construction Spending, Auto Sales and more

by Bill McBride on 1/31/2013 08:56:00 PM

Earlier I posted Employment Situation Preview. I argued some of recent employment indicators suggest a more positive report. Here are some other views:

From CNBC: Market Braces for a Blah Jobs Report as Firms Hold Back

Economists expect 160,000 non-farm payrolls were added in January and the unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 7.8 percent, according to Thomson Reuters.
From Neil Irwin at the WaPo: What to expect from Friday’s jobs report

And an Interesting Anecdote from Tim Duy:
One of the more interesting anecdotes I picked up last week was from a businessman who said that after his firm issued the first paychecks of the year, virtually every employee came to the payroll office and asked why their paychecks were lower, evidently unaware that the payroll tax cut had expired.

If the expiration does come as a surprise to a large proportion of the workforce, perhaps consumer spending in the first quarter will be somewhat softer than current estimates. Something to watch for.
Friday economic releases:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for January will be released. The consensus is for an increase of 185,000 non-farm payroll jobs in January; there were also 155,000 jobs added in December. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 7.7% in January.

Note: As usual, the January report will include revisions. From the BLS: "the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey will introduce revisions to nonfarm payroll employment, hours, and earnings data to reflect the annual benchmark adjustment for March 2012 and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Not seasonally adjusted data beginning with April 2011 and seasonally adjusted data beginning with January 2008 are subject to revision."

For the Household survey, from the BLS: "Effective with the release of The Employment Situation for January 2013, scheduled for February 1, 2013, new population controls will be used in the monthly household survey estimation process."

• At 9:00 AM, The Markit US PMI Manufacturing Index. The consensus is for an increase to 55.5, up from 54.0.

• At 9:55 AM, Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for January) will be released. The consensus is for a reading of 71.5, up from 71.3.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for PMI to be unchanged at 50.7%. (above 50 is expansion).

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in construction spending.

• All day: Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be at 15.3 million SAAR in January (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) unchanged from the December rate. Usually I post a graph around 4 PM ET.

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