by Bill McBride on 1/15/2013 09:55:00 AM
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for November. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for October. Case-Shiller is currently the most followed house price index, however CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® Home Price Index Rises 7.4 Percent Year Over Year in November
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 7.4 percent in November 2012 compared to November 2011. This change represents the biggest increase since May 2006 and the ninth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on a year-over-year basis. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 0.3 percent in November 2012 compared to October 2012. The HPI analysis shows that all but six states are experiencing year-over-year price gains.Click on graph for larger image.
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 6.7 percent in November 2012 compared to November 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.9 percent in November 2012 compared to October 2012. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.
The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that December 2012 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 7.9 percent on a year-over-year basis from December 2011 and fall by 0.5 percent on a month-over-month basis from November 2012 reflecting a seasonal winter slowdown.
“As we close out 2012 the pending index suggests prices will remain strong," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Given the recently released QM rules issued by the CFPB are not expected to significantly restrict credit availability relative to today, the gains made in 2012 will likely be sustained into 2013.”
This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.
The index was up 0.3% in November, and is up 7.4% over the last year.
The index is off 26.8% from the peak - and is up 9.6% from the post-bubble low set in February 2012 (the index is NSA, so some of the increase is seasonal).
The second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for nine consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed early in 2012 on a national basis (the bump in 2010 was related to the tax credit).
This is the largest year-over-year increase since 2006.
Since this index is not seasonally adjusted, it was expected to decline on a month-to-month basis in November - instead the index increased, and, considering seasonal factors, this month-to-month increase was very strong.