Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Chicago Fed "Economic Growth Moderated in December"

by Bill McBride on 1/22/2013 08:38:00 AM

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Economic Growth Moderated in December

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to +0.02 in December from +0.27 in November. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from November, and only two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in December.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged up from –0.13 in November to –0.11 in December—its tenth consecutive reading below zero. December’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity "moderated" in December, and growth was slightly below trend (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:
What is the National Activity Index? The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.

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