by Bill McBride on 12/19/2012 12:15:00 PM
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
On Wednesday December 26th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for October will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will be up by 4.1 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will be up 3.1 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from September to October will be 0.3 percent for the 20-City Composite and 0.1 percent for the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below and are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, the October Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure re-sales.Zillow's forecasts for Case-Shiller have been pretty close. Right now it looks like Case-Shiller will be up close to 6% for 2013 (through the December / Q4 reports to be released next year).
As we had previously discussed, monthly appreciation has slowed and will eventually turn negative in the last months of 2012. This slowdown is in large part due to Case-Shiller’s mix of distressed and non-distressed properties in the same index, as they include foreclosure re-sales. As the market slows down a bit and fewer homes are listed, foreclosure re-sales will make up a larger part of the transactional mix and will therefore skew the Case-Shiller Indices to be more negative. Despite this slowdown, home values are still higher this year than they were at this same time last year.
|Case Shiller Composite 10||Case Shiller Composite 20|
|Zillow Oct Forecast||YoY||3.1%||3.1%||4.1%||4.1%|
|Current Post Bubble Low||146.46||149.39||134.07||136.66|
|Date of Post Bubble Low||Mar-12||Jan-12||Mar-12||Jan-12|
|Above Post Bubble Low||8.1%||4.4%||8.7%||5.2%|
|1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts|
Posted by Bill McBride on 12/19/2012 12:15:00 PM