Friday, December 14, 2012

Some Bullish 2013 House Price Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 12/14/2012 09:07:00 PM

From the WSJ: Home Prices Could Jump 9.7% in 2013, J.P. Morgan Says

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. expects U.S. home prices to rise 3.4% in its base-case estimate and up to 9.7% in its most bullish scenario of economic growth. Standard & Poor’s, which rates private-issue mortgage bonds, on Friday said it expects a 5% rise in 2013.

The J.P. Morgan analysts boosted their base-case estimate from 1.5% ...
I think house prices will increase further in 2013 based on supply and demand (there is little supply, however I think it is possible that inventory will bottom in 2013), but I doubt we will see a 9.7% price increase next year on the repeat sales indexes.

The WSJ's Nick Timiraos makes an amusing comment on Twitter: "All these analysts forecasting monster home price gains were forecasting moderate declines a few months ago."

At the beginning of the year, the consensus was that house prices would decline for at least another year. When I posted The Housing Bottom is Here in early February, many people were surprised. How views change!

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