by Bill McBride on 12/27/2012 03:28:00 PM
Thursday, December 27, 2012
From the Philly Fed:
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for November 2012. In the past month, the indexes increased in 45 states and decreased in five states, for a one-month diffusion index of 80. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in three, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 84. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index rose 0.2 percent in November and 0.6 percent over the past three months.Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. From the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.Click on graph for larger image.
This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).
In November, 45 states had increasing activity, down slightly from 46 in October (including minor increases). This is the second consecutive year with a weak spot during the summer, and improvement towards the end of the year.
Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession.
The map was all green earlier this year, than started to turn red, and is mostly green again.
Posted by Bill McBride on 12/27/2012 03:28:00 PM