by Bill McBride on 12/02/2012 08:43:00 PM
Sunday, December 02, 2012
This will be another week of sausage making - uh, "fiscal cliff", or more accurately "austerity slope" - negotiations. The key question for the economy is: When and how much austerity will the US fiscal authorities enact?
My guess is an agreement will be reached in early January, and Federal austerity will subtract 1% to 1.5% from GDP in 2013. Note: There is no drop dead date – despite the silly countdown timers on some sites.
Monday economic releases:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the ISM Manufacturing Index for November will be released. The consensus is for be PMI to be unchanged at 51.7. (above 50 is expansion).
• Also at 10:00 AM, the Construction Spending for October. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.
• All day: Light vehicle sales for November. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 15.0 million SAAR in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) from 14.2 million in October (October sales were impacted by Hurricane Sandy).
The Asian markets are mostly green tonight, with the Nikkei up 0.4% and the Shanghai Composite is up 0.8%.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are up 2 and DOW futures are up 20.
Oil prices are down slightly with WTI futures at $88.82 per barrel and Brent at $111.18 per barrel.
• Summary for Week Ending Nov 30th
• Schedule for Week of Dec 2nd
Four more questions this week for the December economic prediction contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).