by Bill McBride on 12/02/2012 09:19:00 AM
Sunday, December 02, 2012
A key question for the November employment report, to be released Friday, is the impact of Hurricane Sandy. Sandy hit New York city on October 29th.
Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans on August 29, 2005, so it might be helpful to look back at the impact on employment in the months following Katrina for some clues. Here is the BLS report for September 2005 with a note on Katrina (I expect a note in the November report related to Sandy). Katrina was a much larger storm, and large areas were devastated, but Sandy struck an area with a much larger population - so the impact on employment might be similar.
The following table shows the average number of jobs added for the four months prior to the storm (both storms hit at the end of a month - after the BLS reference period). Following Katrina, employment gains dropped sharply for the next two months. Note: September 2005 (the first month following Katrina) was originally reported at -35,000, but was eventually revised up to +66,000.
|Total Nonfarm Jobs, 1 Month Net Change (000)|
|Average (4 previous months)||245||173|
|Month After Storm||66|
|2nd Month After||80|
|Average 3rd and 4th Month||247|
The consensus is for an increase of 80,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November 2012.
Here are the winners for the November economic question contest:
1st: Terry Oldham
2nd: Pat MacAuley
3rd tie: Alexander Petrov, Daniel Brawdy
• Summary for Week Ending Nov 30th
• Schedule for Week of Dec 2nd