Monday, December 17, 2012

Early: Housing Forecasts for 2013

by Bill McBride on 12/17/2012 01:42:00 PM

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year. Here was a summary of forecasts for 2012. Right now it looks like new home sales will be around 365 thousand this year, and total starts around 750 thousand or so.

Here is one without details, from Hui Shan, Sven Jari Stehn, Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs:

We project housing starts to continue to rise, reaching an annual rate of 1.0 million by the end of 2013 and 1.5 million by the end of 2016.
The table below shows several forecasts for 2013. 

From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: November 2012

From NAHB: Housing and Interest Rate Forecast, 11/29/2012 (excel)

I'll add some more forecasts soon:

Some Housing Forecasts for 2013
New Home Sales (000s)Single Family Starts (000s)Total Starts (000s)CS House Prices
Fannie Mae4526599361.6%1
Wells Fargo4606809902.6%
Merrill Lynch4669762.6%
2012 Estimate3655257506.0%
1FHFA Purchase-Only Index