Thursday, November 08, 2012

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 355,000

by Bill McBride on 11/08/2012 08:39:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending November 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 355,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 363,000. The 4-week moving average was 370,500, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 367,250.
The previous week was unrevised.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.



Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 370,500. This is about 7,000 above the cycle low for the 4-week average of 363,000 in March.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast of 370,000.



And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:

Mostly moving sideways this year, but near the cycle bottom.

SPECIAL NOTE: Due to Hurricane Sandy, we will probably see an increase in initial unemployment claims over the next few weeks. The decline this week is probably because some people in a few states - like New York and New Jersey - were not able to file claims immediately.

All current Employment Graphs

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