by Bill McBride on 11/28/2012 10:00:00 AM
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 368 thousand. This was down from a revised 369 thousand SAAR in August (revised down from 389 thousand).
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
Sales of new single-family houses in October 2012 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 368,000 ... This is 0.3 percent below the revised September rate of 369,000, but is 17.2 percent above the October 2011 estimate of 314,000.Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.
The months of supply increased in October to 4.8 months. September was revised up to 4.7 months (from 4.5 months).
The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.
This is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).
The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 147,000. This represents a supply of 4.8 months at the current sales rate.On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:
"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.
This graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.
The inventory of completed homes for sale was just above the record low in October. The combined total of completed and under construction is also just above the record low since "under construction" is starting to increase.
The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).
In October 2012 (red column), 29 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year only 25 thousand homes were sold in October. This was the third weakest October since this data has been tracked (above 2011 and 2010). The high for October was 105 thousand in 2005.
New home sales have averaged 361 thousand SAAR over the first 10 months of 2012, up sharply from the 307 thousand sales in 2011. Also sales are finally at the lows for previous recessions too.
This was below expectations of 387,000. I'll have more soon ...