Thursday, November 15, 2012

Friday: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

by Bill McBride on 11/15/2012 09:18:00 PM

Note: The report linked to in 2012 FHA Actuarial Review Released: Negative $13.5 Billion economic value appears to have been taken down (maybe released early by mistake). Nick Timiraos at the WSJ writes: Report: FHA to Exhaust Capital Reserves

[T]he latest forecasts show that while the FHA currently has reserves of $30.4 billion, it expects to lose $46.7 billion on the loans it has guaranteed, resulting in a $16.3 billion deficit.
...
"If [the FHA] were a private company, it would be declared insolvent and probably put under conservatorship like Fannie and Freddie," said Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist in Leesburg, Va.
...
Overall, the FHA insured nearly 739,000 loans that were 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure at the end of September, an increase of more than 100,000 loans from a year ago. That represents about 9.6% of all insured loans.

Most of the agency's losses stem from loans made between 2007 and 2009, as the housing bust deepened. Loans made since 2010 are expected to be very profitable.
Friday:
• At 9:15 AM ET, the Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in Industrial Production in October, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.4%.



Another question for the November economic prediction contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).

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