by Bill McBride on 11/16/2012 01:39:00 PM
Friday, November 16, 2012
In addition to Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, and LPS, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes.
FNC released their September index data today. FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. residential property values were unchanged in September from August (Composite 100 index, not seasonally adjusted). The other RPIs (10-MSA, 20-MSA, 30-MSA) increased between 0.2% and 0.4% in September. These indexes are not seasonally adjusted (NSA), and are for non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales).
Since these indexes are NSA, the month-to-month changes will probably turn negative in October. The key is to watch the year-over-year change and also to compare the month-to-month change to previous years.
The year-over-year trends continued to show improvement in September, with the 100-MSA composite up 2.3% compared to September 2011. The FNC index turned positive on a year-over-year basis in July - that was the first year-over-year increase in the FNC index since year-over-year prices started declining in early 2007 (over five years ago).
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph is based on the FNC index (four composites) through September 2012. The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.
The key is the indexes are now showing a year-over-year increase.
The September Case-Shiller index will be released on Tuesday, November 27th.