Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Case-Shiller House Price Comments and Graphs

by Bill McBride on 11/27/2012 09:59:00 AM

Case-Shiller reported the fourth consecutive year-over-year (YoY) gain in their house price indexes since 2010 - and the increase back in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit. Excluding the tax credit, the previous YoY increase was back in 2006. The YoY increase in September suggests that house prices probably bottomed earlier this year (the YoY change lags the turning point for prices).

The following table shows the year-over-year increase for each month this year.

Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index
MonthYoY Change
Jan-12-3.9%
Feb-12-3.5%
Mar-12-2.5%
Apr-12-1.7%
May-12-0.5%
Jun-120.6%
Jul-121.1%
Aug-121.9%
Sep-123.0%
Oct-12 
Nov-12 
Dec-12 
Jan-13 

On a not seasonally adjusted basis (NSA), Case-Shiller house prices will probably start to decline month-to-month in October. But I think prices will remain above the post-bubble lows set earlier this year.

Note: S&P reports the NSA, the following graphs use the Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 31.4% from the peak, and up 0.3% in September (SA). The Composite 10 is up 4.2% from the post bubble low set in January 2012 (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 30.7% from the peak, and up 0.4% (SA) in September. The Composite 20 is up 4.7% from the post-bubble low set in January 2012 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 2.1% compared to September 2011.

The Composite 20 SA is up 3.0% compared to September 2011. This was the fourth consecutive month with a year-over-year gain since 2010 (when the tax credit boosted prices temporarily).

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price Declines Prices increased (SA) in 19 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in September seasonally adjusted (15 of 20 cities increased NSA). Prices in Las Vegas are off 59.1% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 4.8% from the peak. Note that the red column (cumulative decline through September 2012) is above previous declines for all cities.

I'll have more on house prices later.

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