Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Case-Shiller: Comp 20 House Prices increased 3.0% year-over-year in September

by Bill McBride on 11/27/2012 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September (a 3 month average of July, August and September).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities), and the quarterly National Index.

From S&P: Home Prices Rise for the Sixth Straight Month According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through September 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices ... showed that home prices continued to rise in the third quarter of 2012. The national composite was up 3.6% in the third quarter of 2012 versus the third quarter of 2011, and was up 2.2% versus the second quarter of 2012. In September 2012, the 10- and 20-City Composites showed annual returns of +2.1% and +3.0%. Average home prices in the 10- and 20-City Composites were each up by 0.3% in September versus August 2012. Seventeen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted better annual returns in September versus August 2012; Detroit and Washington D.C. recorded a slight deceleration in their annual rates, and New York saw no change.

“Home prices rose in the third quarter, marking the sixth consecutive month of increasing prices,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “In September’s report all three headline composites and 17 of the 20 cities gained over their levels of a year ago. Month-over-month, 13 cities and both Composites posted positive monthly gains.

“The National Composite increased by 3.6% from the same quarter in 2011 and by 2.2% from the second quarter of 2012. The 10- and 20-City Composites have posted positive annual returns for four consecutive months with a +2.1% and +3.0% annual change in September, respectively. Month-over-month, both Composites have recorded increases for six consecutive months, with the most recent monthly gain being +0.3% for each Composite.

“We are entering the seasonally weak part of the year. The headline figures, which are not seasonally adjusted, showed five cities with lower prices in September versus only one in August; in the seasonally adjusted data the pattern was reversed: one city fell in September versus two in August. Despite the seasons, housing continues to improve.
This was about at the consensus forecast and the recent change to a year-over-year increase is a significant story. I'll have graphs and more on prices later (S&P's website is having a problem).

Last 10 Posts