Thursday, October 25, 2012

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 369,000

by Bill McBride on 10/25/2012 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending October 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 369,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 392,000. The 4-week moving average was 368,000, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average of 366,500.
The previous week was revised up from 388,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.



Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 368,000. This is 5,000 above the cycle low for the 4-week average of 363,000 in March.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast of 372,000.



And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:

Mostly moving sideways this year, but near the cycle bottom. The large swings over the previous two weeks were related to timing and technical factors.

All current Employment Graphs