Thursday, October 18, 2012

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase sharply to 388,000

by Bill McBride on 10/18/2012 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending October 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 388,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 342,000. The 4-week moving average was 365,500, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 364,750.
The previous week was revised up from 339,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.



Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 365,500. This is just above the cycle low for the 4-week average of 363,000 in March.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast of 365,000.



And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:

Mostly moving sideways this year, but near the cycle bottom. The large swings over the last two weeks were related to timing and technical factors, and is a reason to use the 4-week average.

All current Employment Graphs

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