Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Housing Starts increased sharply to 872 thousand SAAR in September

by Bill McBride on 10/17/2012 08:30:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 872,000. This is 15.0 percent above the revised August estimate of 758,000 and is 34.8 percent above the September 2011 rate of 647,000.

Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 603,000; this is 11.0 percent above the revised August figure of 543,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 894,000. This is 11.6 percent above the revised August rate of 801,000 and is 45.1 percent above the September 2011 estimate of 616,000.

Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 545,000; this is 6.7 percent above the revised August figure of 511,000.
Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Total housing starts were at 872 thousand (SAAR) in September, up 15.0% from the revised August rate of 758 thousand (SAAR). Note that August was revised up from 750 thousand.

Single-family starts increased 11.0 to 603 thousand in September.

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that total housing starts have been increasing lately after moving sideways for about two years and a half years.

Total starts are up about 80% from the bottom start rate, and single family starts are up 70% from the low.

This was way above expectations of 765 thousand starts in September. This was partially because of the volatile multi-family sector, but single family starts were up sharply too - and above 600 thousand SAAR for the first time since 2008. Right now starts are on pace to be up about 25% from 2011.

All Housing Investment and Construction Graphs