Friday, September 14, 2012

Key Measures show slowing inflation in August

by Bill McBride on 9/14/2012 01:03:00 PM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.8% annualized rate) in August. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% (2.0% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.6% (7.5% annualized rate) in August. The CPI less food and energy increased 0.1% (0.6% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Note: The Cleveland Fed has the median CPI details for August here.

Inflation Measures Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.3%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.9%, and core CPI rose 1.9%. Core PCE is for July and increased 1.6% year-over-year.

On a monthly basis (annualized), two of these measure were at or below the Fed's target; trimmed-mean CPI was at 2.0%, Core CPI at 0.6% - although median CPI was at 2.8%. Core PCE for July was at 0.3%. These measures suggest inflation is now mostly below the Fed's target of 2% on a year-over-year basis and it appears the inflation rate is slowing.

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