by Bill McBride on 8/14/2012 08:30:00 AM
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.8% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.1% from July 2011. From the Census Bureau report:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $403.9 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent from the previous month and 4.1 percent above July 2011. ... The May to June 2012 percent change was revised from -0.5 percent to -0.7%.Ex-autos, retail sales increased 0.8% in July.
Click on graph for larger image.
Sales for June were revised down to a 0.7% decrease (from 0.5% decrease).
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
Retail sales are up 21.9% from the bottom, and now 6.6% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)
The second graph shows the same data, but just since 2006 (to show the recent changes). Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 19.1% from the bottom, and now 7.0% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).
The third graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.
Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 5.0% on a YoY basis (4.1% for all retail sales). Retail sales ex-gasoline increased 0.8% in July.
This was above the consensus forecast for retail sales of a 0.3% increase in July, and above (edit) the consensus for a 0.4% increase ex-auto.
This mostly just reversed the sharp decline in June.
Posted by Bill McBride on 8/14/2012 08:30:00 AM