Friday, August 03, 2012

July Employment Report: 163,000 Jobs, 8.3% Unemployment Rate

by Bill McBride on 8/03/2012 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, and manufacturing.
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Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 63.7 percent, and the employment- population ratio, at 58.4 percent, changed little in July.
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The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from +77,000 to +87,000, and the change for June was revised from +80,000 to +64,000.
Payroll jobs added per month Click on graph for larger image.

This was a somewhat better month, and the revisions for the previous two months were mostly offsetting.

This was above expectations of 100,000 payroll jobs added.

The second graph shows the employment population ratio, the participation rate, and the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate increased to 8.3% (red line).

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment ratesThe Labor Force Participation Rate declined slightly to 63.7% in July (blue line). This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although most of the recent decline is due to demographics.

The Employment-Population ratio declined to 58.4% in July (black line).

Percent Job Losses During Recessions The third graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms. The dotted line is ex-Census hiring.

This shows the depth of the recent employment recession - worse than any other post-war recession - and the relatively slow recovery due to the lingering effects of the housing bust and financial crisis.

This was more payroll growth than expected, but still fairly weak. (expected was 100,000). I'll have much more later ...

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