by Bill McBride on 7/12/2012 08:40:00 AM
Thursday, July 12, 2012
The DOL reports:
In the week ending July 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 350,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 376,000. The 4-week moving average was 376,500, a decrease of 9,750 from the previous week's revised average of 386,250.The previous week was revised up from 374,000 to 376,000.
From MarketWatch: "onetime factors such as fewer auto-sector layoffs than normal likely caused the sharp decline, the Labor Department said Thursday".
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.
Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims declined to 376,500.
The sharp decline was probably due to onetime factors, plus this included the holiday week.
And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:
This was well below the consensus forecast of 375,000. With the holiday week and onetime factors, it is difficult to tell if there is any improvement - but this is the lowest level for the four week average since May.
Posted by Bill McBride on 7/12/2012 08:40:00 AM