by Bill McBride on 7/09/2012 10:21:00 PM
Monday, July 09, 2012
Another light day for economic data.
• At 7:30 AM ET, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 92.0 in June.
• At 10:00 AM, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May will be released by the BLS. The number of job openings has generally been trending up.
On the Fed, from Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs, Bank Of America Say Fed To Hold Rate
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. say a weaker-than-forecast June jobs gain in the U.S. will lead the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark interest rate at almost zero until the middle of 2015.And from Tim Duy today at EconomistsView: Fedspeak - And Lots of It
“The ‘late 2014’ formulation has now ‘aged’ by six months since it was first adopted, but the economy still looks no better,” Jan Hatzius, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs in New York, wrote in a report yesterday. The central bank may announce the change as soon as its next policy meeting July 31 to Aug. 1, Hatzius wrote.
Lots of Fed chatter today. Most of it points toward quantitative easing, but with a caveat: In general, we are getting a rehash of already stated views, views that should have pointed in the direction of QE3 at the last meeting.QE3 or extend the extended period? That is probably the debate for the next FOMC meeting.
Bottom Line: Lots of Fed chatter, on average pointing in the direction of additional easing, but none of it really that new, and all of which would have pointed to QE3 at the last meeting. Enough chatter, though, that it makes me suspect that the minutes from the last FOMC meeting will have plenty of talk like "several participants saw the need for additional easing." If so, expectations for the Fed to step up in August will become even more entrenched.