by Bill McBride on 7/07/2012 01:04:00 PM
Saturday, July 07, 2012
• Summary for Week Ending July 6th
The key report this week is the May Trade Balance report.
The FOMC minutes, to be released on Wednesday, will receive extra attention for clues about QE3. Also several regional Fed presidents will speak this week.
8:45 AM ET: LPS Mortgage Monitor for May.
3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for June. The consensus is for credit to increase $8.5 billion.
7:30 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June.
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
The index decreased slightly to 94.4 in May from 94.5 in April.
The consensus is for a decrease to 92.0 in June.
10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May from the BLS.
This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.
Jobs openings declined in April to 3.416 million, down from 3.741 million in March. However the number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and openings are up about 13% year-over-year compared to April 2011.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for May from the Census Bureau.
Exports decreased in April. Imports decreased even more. Exports are 11% above the pre-recession peak and up 4% compared to April 2011; imports are 2% above the pre-recession peak, and up about 6% compared to April 2011.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to decrease to $48.7 billion in May, down from from $50.1 billion in April. Export activity to Europe will be closely watched due to economic weakness. Also oil prices started to decline in April, and that will probably reduce the value of oil imports in May.
10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for May. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in inventories.
2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of June 19-20, 2012.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase slightly to 375 thousand.
8:30 AM: Import and Export Prices for May. The consensus is a for a 1.9% decrease in import prices.
8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for June. The consensus is for a 0.4% decrease in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for July). The consensus is for sentiment to increase slightly to 73.5 from 73.2 in June.