Tuesday, July 17, 2012

NAHB Builder Confidence increases strongly in July, Highest since March 2007

by Bill McBride on 7/17/2012 10:35:00 AM

Earlier ... The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) increased 6 points in July to 35. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Rises Six Points in July

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose six points to 35 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for July, released today. This is the largest one-month gain recorded by the index in nearly a decade, and brings the HMI to its highest point since March of 2007.

"Builder confidence increased by solid margins in every region of the country in July as views of current sales conditions, prospects for future sales and traffic of prospective buyers all improved,” said Barry Rutenberg, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Gainesville, Fla.
...
Every HMI component recorded gains in July. The components gauging current sales conditions and traffic of prospective buyers each rose six points, to 37 and 29, respectively, while the component gauging sales expectations for the next six months rose 11 points to 44.

Likewise, every region posted HMI gains in July. The Northeast registered an eight-point gain to 36, while the Midwest gained three points to 34, the South gained five points to 32 and the West gained 12 points to 44.
HMI and Starts Correlation Click on graph for larger image.

This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the July release for the HMI and the May data for starts (June housing starts will be released tomorrow). A reading of 35 was well above the consensus.

Housing Investment and Construction Graphs

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