Monday, July 09, 2012

LPS: Mortgages in Foreclosure still near record high, Much higher in Judicial States

by Bill McBride on 7/09/2012 08:45:00 AM

LPS released their Mortgage Monitor report for May today. According to LPS, 7.20% of mortgages were delinquent in May, up slightly from 7.12% in April, and down from 7.96% in May 2011.

LPS reports that 4.12% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down slightly from 4.14% in April, and up slightly from 4.11% in May 2011.

This gives a total of 11.32% delinquent or in foreclosure. It breaks down as:

• 1,967,000 loans less than 90 days delinquent.
• 1,575,000 loans 90+ days delinquent.
• 2,027,000 loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of 5,569,000 loans delinquent or in foreclosure in May. This is down from 6,350,000 in May 2011.

This following graph shows the total delinquent and in-foreclosure rates since 1995.

Delinquency Rate Click on graph for larger image.

The total delinquency rate has fallen to 7.20% from the peak in January 2010 of 10.97%. A normal rate is probably in the 4% to 5% range, so there is a long ways to go.

The in-foreclosure rate was at 4.12%, down from the record high in October 2011 of 4.29%. There are still a large number of loans in this category (about 2.03 million).

LPS Mortgage MonitorThe second graph shows percent of loans in the foreclosure process by process (Judicial vs. non-judicial).

From LPS: "Foreclosure inventory in judicial states is 6.5% - more than 2.5X that of non-judicial states (2.46%); national average is 4.14%. ... Aged foreclosure inventory - loans delinquent more than two years - is also much higher in judicial states, where it accounts for 53% of total foreclosure inventory, as opposed to just over 30% in non-judicial states ... The average YoY change in percentage of non-current loans for judicial states is -0.8%; in non-judicial states, it's -7.1%"

The third graph shows new problem loan rates continue to decline...

FHA VintageThis graph shows the percent of loans that are seriously delinquent that were current 6 months ago.

From LPS: "New problem loan rates continue to improve, reaching a low not seen since July of 2007, after eight consecutive monthly declines"

There is much more in the Mortgage Monitor report.

The good news is the flow into the pipeline has slowed. The bad news - especially in judicial states - is that the pipeline is still very full.

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