by Bill McBride on 7/05/2012 10:23:00 PM
Thursday, July 05, 2012
With an 8%+ unemployment rate, every day should be about jobs ...
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for June will be released. The consensus is for an increase of 90,000 non-farm payroll jobs in June, up from the 69,000 jobs added in May. Earlier today I wrote Employment Situation Preview. Here are some comments from Goldman Sachs:
We expect a middling June employment report to be released on Friday morning, with a 125,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls and a flat 8.2% unemployment rate. We raised our payroll number from 75,000 earlier today in response to 1) more online help-wanted advertising, 2) fewer layoff announcements, 3) a better ADP, 4) slightly lower initial jobless claims in the latest (post-survey) week, and 5) decent readings in the employment components of the ISM manufacturing and nonmanufacturing survey (despite disappointments in most other components).And from Patti Domm at CNBC: June Jobs Report Could Put the Fed in Play
If the report broadly matches our expectations, it would probably dampen speculation about an imminent return to balance sheet expansion from the Federal Reserve.
“I think the whisper is closer to 110,000, 120,000," said John Briggs, senior Treasury strategist at RBS. "Anything between 80,000 and 130,000 doesn’t matter. It shouldn’t be a major market mover,” he said. However, Briggs said the equity market is being supported by the idea of Fed easing and a really good number might actually be a negative to some in risk markets.• Early: Reis is expected to release their Q2 Mall vacancy report.
If the number is better than expected, “I don’t think that would take QE off the table. It would just have us waiting for the July 17 testimony” of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke before Congress, he said.