by Bill McBride on 6/02/2012 08:49:00 AM
Saturday, June 02, 2012
Back in January I wrote:
It is looking like there will be less drag from state and local governments in 2012, and that most of the drag will be over by the end of Q2 (end of FY 2012). This doesn't mean state and local government will add to GDP in the 2nd half of 2012, just that the drag on GDP and employment will probably end. Just getting rid of the drag will help.It is time for an update since we are almost halfway through the year.
So far in 2012 - through May - state and local government have lost 7,000 jobs (8,000 jobs were lost in May alone though). In the first five months of 2011, state and local governments lost 126,000 payroll jobs - and 230,000 for the year.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph shows total state and government payroll employment since January 2007. State and local governments lost 129,000 jobs in 2009, 262,000 in 2010, and 230,000 in 2011.
Note: Some of the stimulus spending from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act probably kept state and local employment from declining faster in 2009.
Of course the Federal government is still losing workers (50,000 over the last 12 months), but it looks like state and local government employment losses might be ending (or at least slowing sharply).
Yesterday employment posts:
• May Employment Report: 69,000 Jobs, 8.2% Unemployment Rate
• May Employment Summary and Discussion
• Employment Graphs
Posted by Bill McBride on 6/02/2012 08:49:00 AM