Thursday, June 28, 2012

Kansas City Fed: Growth in Regional Manufacturing Activity Slowed in June

by Bill McBride on 6/28/2012 11:03:00 AM

From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Eased Further Activity Slowed

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity slowed in June, and expectations eased as producers grew more uncertain.. ...

The month-over-month composite index was 3 in June, down from 9 in May and equal to 3 in April ... The production index eased from 17 to 12, and the new orders index fell back into negative territory after rising slightly last month. Order backlogs continued to ease. The employment index moved lower but remained positive, while the new orders for exports index decreased.

Price indexes moderated for the second straight month, including an actual decline in monthly selling prices. The month-over-month finished goods price index dropped from 0 to -4, its lowest level since mid-2010, and the raw materials price index also decreased.
The regional manufacturing surveys were mostly weaker in June, especially the Philly Fed index.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (dashed green, through June), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through June) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through May (right axis).

The ISM index for June will be released Monday, July 2nd, and these surveys suggest some decrease from the 53.5 reading in May.