Thursday, May 31, 2012

NY Fed: Consumer Deleveraging Continued in Q1, but Student Loan Debt Continued to Grow

by Bill McBride on 5/31/2012 11:27:00 AM

From the NY Fed: New York Fed Quarterly Report Shows Student Loan Debt Continues to Grow

In its latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York today announced that student loan debt reported on consumer credit reports reached $904 billion in the first quarter of 2012, a $30 billion increase from the previous quarter. In addition, consumer deleveraging continued to advance as overall indebtedness declined to $11.44 trillion, about $100 billion (0.9 percent) less than in the fourth quarter of 2011. Since the peak in household debt in the third quarter of 2008, student loan debt has increased by $293 billion, while other forms of debt fell a combined $1.53 trillion.
Here is the Q1 report: Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit
Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports fell again ($81 billion or 1.0%) during the quarter; home equity lines of credit (HELOC) balances fell by $15 billion (2.4%). Household mortgage and HELOC indebtedness are now 11.9% and 14.3%, respectively, below their peaks. Consumer indebtedness excluding mortgage and HELOC balances stood at $2.64 trillion at the close of the quarter. Student loan indebtedness, the largest component of household debt other than mortgages, rose 3.4% in the quarter, to $904 billion.
...
About 291,000 individuals had a foreclosure notation added to their credit reports between December 31 and March 31, about the same as in 2011Q4, but 20.8% below the 2011Q1 level.

Total household delinquency rates continued their downward trend in 2012Q1. As of March 31, 9.3% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, compared to 9.8% on December 31, 2011.
Here are two graphs:

Total Household Debt Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt decreased slightly in Q1. This was mostly due to a decline in mortgage debt.

However student debt is still increasing. From the NY Fed:
Over the one year period ending March 31, 2012, student loan balances rose $64 billion. Over the same period, all other forms of household debt (mortgages, HELOCs, auto loans and credit card balances) fell a combined $383 billion.

Since the peak in household debt in 2008Q3, student loan debt has increased by $293 billion, while other forms of debt fell a combined $1.53 trillion.
Delinquency Status The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency. In general, the percent of delinquent debt is declining, but what really stands out is the percent of debt 90+ days delinquent (Yellow, orange and red). The percent of seriously delinquent loans will probably decline quicker now that the mortgage servicer settlement has been reached.

From the NY Fed:
About $1.06 trillion of consumer debt is currently delinquent, with $796 billion seriously delinquent (at least 90 days late or “severely derogatory”).
There are a number of credit graphs at the NY Fed site.

Last 10 Posts