Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Grexit Update and Look Ahead: Durable Goods, Weekly Unemployment Claims

by Bill McBride on 5/23/2012 09:01:00 PM

The Greek election is June 17th, and Greece will be funded through the election. But the contingency planning has started ... from the WSJ: Europe Plans for Greece Exit

Finance-ministry officials from the 17 countries that use the euro agreed earlier this week on the need to develop national contingency plans in case Greece drops out of the common currency, euro-zone officials said. The plans would seek to address what would be an unprecedented event in the modern financial system: how to buffer government bond markets, the banking sector and other financial markets in the event of a Greek exit.
...
Europe's leaders emphasize they want to avoid a Greek exit and warn of turmoil in Greece and beyond if the country leaves.
From the Athens News: Euro exit fears hinder tax collecting efforts
Two tax officials who declined to be named told Reuters that May revenues fell by 15-30 percent in tax offices away from the major cities and relative wealth centres of Athens and Thessaloniki.

"People are suspending some payments because we are in a pre-election period and also because of uncertainty stemming from a potential Greek euro exit," said the finance ministry official
And on Thursday:

• At 8:30 AM ET, the Census Bureau is scheduled to release the Durable Goods report for April. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in durable goods orders.

• At 8:30 AM, the Department of Labor will release the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims report. The consensus is for claims to be essentially unchanged at 371 thousand compared to 370 thousand last week.

• Also the Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for May will be released at 11:00 AM, and NY Fed Predisent William Dudley speaks at 10:30 AM.

Earlier on new home sales:
New Home Sales increase in April to 343,000 Annual RateNew Home Sales Comments
New Home Sales graphs