by Bill McBride on 4/16/2012 08:30:00 AM
Monday, April 16, 2012
On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.8% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 6.5% from March 2011. From the Census Bureau report:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $411.1 billion, an increase of 0.8 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 6.5 percent (±0.7%) above March 2011. ... The January to February 2012 percent change was revised from 1.1 percent (±0.5) to 1.0 percent(±0.2%).Ex-autos, retail sales increased 0.8% in March.
Click on graph for larger image.
Sales for February were revised down from a 1.1% increase to a 1.0% increase.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
Retail sales are up 23.6% from the bottom, and now 8.6% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)
The second graph shows the same data since 2006 (to show the recent changes). Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 19.6% from the bottom, and now 7.7% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).
The third graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.
Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 6.3% on a YoY basis (6.6% for all retail sales). Retail sales ex-gasoline increased 0.7% in March.
This was above the consensus forecast for retail sales of a 0.3% increase in March, and above the consensus for a 0.6% increase ex-auto.
Posted by Bill McBride on 4/16/2012 08:30:00 AM