by Bill McBride on 4/29/2012 08:01:00 AM
Sunday, April 29, 2012
By request, here is an update to four key indicators used by the NBER for business cycle dating: GDP, Employment, Industrial production and real personal income less transfer payments.
Note: The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator. This shows when the indicator has bottomed - and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak. If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.
These graphs show that several major indicators are still significantly below the pre-recession peaks.
Click on graph for larger image.
This graph is for real GDP through Q1 2012. Real GDP returned to the pre-recession peak in Q3 2011, and has been at new post recession highs for three consecutive quarters.
At the worst point, real GDP was off 5.1% from the 2007 peak.
Real GDP has performed better than other indicators ...
This graph shows real personal income less transfer payments as a percent of the previous peak through February (March data will be released Monday).
This measure was off 10.7% at the trough.
Real personal income less transfer payments is still 4.2% below the previous peak.
The third graph is for industrial production through March.
Industrial production was off over 17% at the trough, and has been one of the stronger performing sectors during the recovery.
However industrial production is still 4.1% below the pre-recession peak.
The final graph is for employment. This is similar to the graph I post every month comparing percent payroll jobs lost in several recessions.
Payroll employment is still 3.8% below the pre-recession peak.
All of these indicators collapsed in 2008 and early 2009, and only real GDP is back to the pre-recession peak. It is possible that industrial production will be back to the pre-recession peak in early 2013, but employment and personal income less transfer payments have a long way to go.
• Summary for Week ending April 27th
• Schedule for Week of April 29th
• The upward slope of Real House Prices