Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Las Vegas House sales up slightly YoY in March, Inventory down sharply

by Bill McBride on 4/10/2012 04:45:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. Prices, as of the January report, were off 61.8% from the peak according to Case-Shiller, and off 9.1% over the last year.

Sales in 2011 were at record levels - even more than during the bubble - and it looks like 2012 will be an even stronger year, even with some new rules that slow the foreclosure process.

From the LVGAR: GLVAR reports local home prices, sales rising as inventory shrinks

According to GLVAR, the total number of local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in March was 4,388. That’s up from 3,794 in February, and up from 4,316 total sales in March 2011.
...
Compared to one year ago, home sales were up 4.4 percent, while condo and townhome sales were down 8.4 percent.
...
The total number of homes listed for sale on GLVAR’s Multiple Listing Service again decreased from February to March, with a total of 18,200 single-family homes listed for sale at the end of the month. That’s down 3.6 percent from 18,870 single-family homes listed for sale at the end of February and down 18.0 percent from one year ago.
...
By the end of March, GLVAR reported 4,901 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s down 25.1 percent from 6,543 such homes listed in February and down 56.8 percent from one year ago.
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“Our inventory is really dropping,” said GLVAR President Kolleen Kelley, a longtime local REALTOR®. “Based on current demand, we’re looking at a six-week supply of homes on the market. This is making new homes more attractive and creating a window of opportunity for home builders.”
Economist Tom Lawler sent me the following table for several distressed areas that have reported so far for March.

CR Note: This could be very useful data over the next several months (and years) as we try to track the impact of the mortgage servicer settlement and to see if the markets are improving. For all of the areas, the distressed share of sales is down from March 2011, the share of short sales has increased and the share of foreclosure sales are down - and down significantly in some areas.

Look at Phoenix: Short sales have increased from 19.1% to 25.7%, and foreclosures have declined from 46.2% to 21.1%.

Note: The table is a percentage of total sales.
Short Sales ShareForeclosure Sales ShareTotal "Distressed" Share
12-Mar11-Mar12-Mar11-Mar12-Mar11-Mar
Las Vegas26.6%23.6%40.7%47.6%67.3%71.2%
Reno34.0%30.0%32.0%41.0%66.0%71.0%
Phoenix25.7%19.1%21.1%46.2%46.7%65.3%
Mid-Atlantic (MRIS)13.2%13.1%14.7%26.3%27.9%39.5%

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