Thursday, April 12, 2012

Analyst: Rising Rents "could tip the cost of housing in favor of ownership"

by Bill McBride on 4/12/2012 04:01:00 PM

This is from real estate analyst G.U. Krueger in the O.C. Register: Analyst: Rent hikes turning renters into buyers

USC’s 2012 Casden Multifamily Forecast predicts two more golden years of apartment Southern California rent growth. The sky seems to be the limit for ecstatic landlords right now.

However, emphatic landlords raising rents with gusto could tip the cost of housing in favor of ownership while at the same time a supply response (more construction) could keep vacancy rates from dropping much further.
...
The “witching hour” for apartment rents may not be far off. The relative cost between rentals and ownership advances in favor of home purchases.
Price-to-Rent RatioClick on graph for larger image.

CR: The price-to-rent ratio is close to normal (see: Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio decline to late '90s Levels )

As G.U. notes, rising rents and falling house prices will eventually tip the balance back to ownership.

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