Monday, March 19, 2012

Lawler on FHA: Number of Seriously Delinquent SF Loans Down Slightly in February, Way Up from Year Ago

by Bill McBride on 3/19/2012 03:53:00 PM

Some interesting data from economist Tom Lawler (the FHA remains a significant problem):

Updated data from the FHA’s early warning system shows that the number of FHA-insured SF loans serviced by entities with a combined FHA SF servicing portfolio of almost 7.4 million loans totaled 722,030 at the end of February, down from 732,775 in January. While this report doesn’t always exactly match other FHA reports, it tracks the “official” numbers pretty closely. Here, e.g., are the reported number of seriously delinquent FHA-insured SF loans from the EWS and from the FHA’s monthly Outlook Report.

Seriously Delinquent FHA-Insured SF Loans
 EWSOutlook
Oct-11657,552661,554
Nov-11690,271689,346
Dec-11713,793711,082
Jan-12732,775733,844
Feb-12722,030

Assuming the EWS numbers are reasonable estimates for February’s SDQ total, here is some historical data. In the table on the next page, the FHA insurance in force is number of loans, and is from the Monthly Report to the FHA Commissioner. These numbers differ from those in the FHA Outlook Report, for reasons unclear to me. The data on the number of SDQ loans in the Commissioner report and the Outlook report are the same save for March 2011, and I believe the Commissioner report has an incorrect number, so I used the March 2011 number from the Outlook report (aarrgh!).

FHA SF Insured PortfolioSeriously DelinquentSDQ Rate
10/31/20106,658,560532,9388.00%
11/30/20106,724,304588,9478.76%
12/31/20106,813,888598,1408.78%
1/31/20116,889,701612,4438.89%
2/28/20116,933,260619,7128.94%
3/31/20116,984,580580,4808.31%
4/30/20117,036,153575,9508.19%
5/31/20117,079,820578,9338.18%
6/30/20117,152,140584,8228.18%
7/31/20117,203,809598,9218.31%
8/31/20117,260,598611,8228.43%
9/30/20117,288,440635,0968.71%
10/31/20117,342,712661,5549.01%
11/30/20117,378,126689,3469.34%
12/31/20117,415,002711,0829.59%
1/31/20127,464,533733,8449.83%
2/29/20127,499,802722,0309.63%


CR Note: Fannie and Freddie serious delinquencies are down year-over-year, but the FHA delinquencies are up from 8.94% in Feb 2011 to 9.63%.

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